A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
